We blend 16 well-known signals — price trends, miner economics, on-chain behavior, and crowd mood — into one easy-to-read score so you can see at a glance whether bitcoin looks cheap, fair, or frothy today.
How to read the score: 0 means deep bear-market lows, 100 means cycle-top euphoria. Most of life happens in between. The needle tells you which neighborhood we're in today.
Connect your eToro account to act on the dashboard's signal in one click — defaults to the Demo / Virtual portfolio so you can paper trade safely.
Educational signal — not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Use your eToro Demo / Virtual portfolio; switch to Real money only at your own risk.
Based on where the needle points right now, here's a sensible default for someone investing for the long run.
These are common reference levels traders use, derived from long-term moving averages and well-known cycle models. They are not predictions — they are checkpoints.
Toggle between three popular long-term frameworks. Y-axis is logarithmic — that's how bitcoin's history is best read.
No. This is an educational dashboard. It blends well-known indicators that long-term bitcoin investors look at, but it can't predict the future. Treat the score as a temperature reading, not a recipe.
It's a weighted average of 16 indicators, each scaled from 0 (historically deeply oversold) to 100 (historically frothy). The composite score answers a simple question: statistically, does today look more like a bear-market bottom or a euphoric top?
Roughly every four years, the bitcoin protocol cuts the new-coin issuance in half — the "halving." Historically, this has anchored a rhythm of bull markets peaking 12–18 months after a halving and bear markets bottoming 24–30 months after. That rhythm may not repeat forever, but it's been remarkably consistent so far.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule regardless of price. It removes the need to time the market. Our playbook simply suggests scaling that DCA up when bitcoin looks cheap and dialing it back (or selling) when it looks frothy.
Live, free public APIs every time you load the page. Price history from Binance, current market data from CoinGecko, the Fear & Greed Index from alternative.me, and network hashrate from mempool.space. Two on-chain proxies (MVRV and NUPL) are estimated from market data — they're directionally correct but won't match Glassnode to the decimal.
Cycle signals move slowly. Once a week is plenty. Daily checking will mostly produce noise and anxiety.
The Bitcoin Cycle Compass is an educational tool that aggregates publicly available market data and well-known cycle indicators into a single composite score. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. You alone are responsible for any trading decision you make.
The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts and historical patterns are not a guarantee of future returns.
Crypto-assets are highly volatile and largely unregulated in many jurisdictions. They are not protected by deposit guarantee schemes (e.g., FSCS in the UK, FDIC in the US, ICS in Cyprus). You can lose 100% of your investment. Liquidity may be poor at times of market stress, and prices can gap rapidly.
If you trade leveraged crypto via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), losses can exceed your initial deposit. A high percentage of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Refer to the official figure published on etoro.com for your region. Use leverage with extreme caution and only after you fully understand the mechanics.
The composite score is a weighted average of 16 indicators chosen by the author. The weights, scaling bands and signal mappings are opinionated. On-chain proxies for MVRV and NUPL are estimated from market data and may differ materially from on-chain providers such as Glassnode. Models such as Stock-to-Flow, the Rainbow Chart, and Power Law have known limitations and have decoupled from spot price at various points.
Demo trades use simulated execution. They do not reflect real-world slippage, partial fills, funding costs, overnight fees, swap charges, or platform-specific spreads. Real-money behaviour can differ significantly. Always confirm the environment indicator in the header before submitting an order.
Certain crypto products, leverage levels and order types may be unavailable or restricted in your country. Eligibility, regulation and consumer protections differ by region. It is your responsibility to ensure that any trade you place is permitted in your jurisdiction.
This dashboard does not consider your personal financial situation, objectives, knowledge, experience or risk tolerance. Crypto and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Tax treatment depends on your individual circumstances and may be subject to change. Consider seeking independent advice from a qualified financial adviser, accountant or tax specialist.
Market data is fetched live from third-party providers (Binance, CoinGecko, Alternative.me, mempool.space). Data may be delayed, inaccurate or unavailable due to provider outages, rate limits or browser CORS restrictions. Prices shown here may differ from those on your eToro account at the moment of execution.
Not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The Bitcoin Cycle Compass is a personal educational project. It is not produced by, endorsed by, or affiliated with eToro Group Ltd or any of its subsidiaries unless explicitly stated. Order execution is performed against eToro's public API using credentials you provide; your relationship with eToro is governed by eToro's own terms, risk disclosure and licence in your region. Always read those documents in full before trading. If you are unsure whether trading is right for you, do not trade.
Trade directly from the playbook · default to Demo / Virtual portfolio
Open a market position on Bitcoin · environment: demo
From demo account · close positions or trim a slice